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社科院李扬:去杠杆要打持久战

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月28日 08:53:11
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(原)(标)(题)(:社)(科)(院)(李)(扬)(:去)(杠)(杆)(要)(打)(持)(久)(战)(实)(体)(、金)(融)(需)(结)(合)(
受)(国)(内)(外)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(影)(响)(,中)(国)(实)(体)(经)(济)(出)(现)(一)(定)(调)(整)(,违)(约)(现)(象)(和)(不)(良)(贷)(款)(增)(多)(。另)(外)(,金)(融)(创)(新)(下)(资)(管)(业)(务)(的)(监)(管)(套)(利)(和)(空)(转)(套)(利)(突)(出)(,衍)(生)(出)(一)(系)(列)(风)(险)(。“去)(杠)(杆)(”、“去)(监)(管)(套)(利)(”的)(形)(势)(严)(峻)(,任)(务)(艰)(巨)(。
今)(年)(4月)(25日)(,中)(共)(中)(央)(政)(治)(局)(就)(维)(护)(国)(家)(金)(融)(安)(全)(进)(行)(第)(四)(十)(次)(集)(体)(学)(习)(,中)(共)(中)(央)(总)(书)(记)(习)(近)(平)(在)(主)(持)(学)(习)(时)(就)(维)(护)(金)(融)(安)(全)(、做)(好)(金)(融)(工)(作)(发)(表)(了)(重)(要)(讲)(话)(,中)(央)(对)(于)(防)(控)(金)(融)(风)(险)(高)(度)(重)(视)(。
5月)(25日)(,在)(“第)(十)(四)(届)(上)(海)(衍)(生)(品)(市)(场)(论)(坛)(”上)(,中)(国)(社)(会)(科)(学)(院)(学)(部)(委)(员)(、国)(家)(金)(融)(与)(发)(展)(实)(验)(室)(理)(事)(长)(李)(扬)(表)(示)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(主)(要)(风)(险)(就)(是)(经)(济)(增)(长)(速)(度)(在)(下)(滑)(,在)(下)(滑)(的)(过)(程)(中)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(、房)(地)(产)(库)(存)(增)(加)(,企)(业)(困)(难)(加)(剧)(及)(失)(业)(率)(上)(升)(问)(题)(等)(日)(益)(突)(出)(。
“这)(些)(突)(出)(的)(实)(体)(经)(济)(问)(题)(映)(射)(在)(金)(融)(领)(域)(,将)(集)(中)(体)(现)(为)(杠)(杆)(率)(攀)(升)(,债)(务)(负)(担)(加)(重)(和)(不)(良)(资)(产)(增)(加)(。”在)(李)(扬)(看)(来)(,杠)(杆)(不)(断)(攀)(升)(是)(今)(后)(经)(济)(风)(险)(最)(大)(和)(最)(集)(中)(的)(体)(现)(。结)(合)(实)(体)(经)(济)(中)(的)(去)(产)(能)(、去)(库)(存)(等)(问)(题)(,解)(决)(实)(体)(企)(业)(的)(问)(题)(,解)(决)(金)(融)(部)(门)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(高)(升)(问)(题)(,成)(为)(所)(有)(问)(题)(的)(核)(心)(。
问)(题)(在)(非)(金)(融)(领)(域)(
近)(日)(,国)(际)(评)(级)(公)(司)(穆)(迪)(将)(中)(国)(主)(权)(信)(用)(级)(别)(从)(Aa3下)(调)(一)(级)(至)(A1,并)(将)(经)(济)(发)(展)(由)(“负)(面)(”调)(整)(为)(“稳)(定)(”。理)(由)(主)(要)(是)(,中)(国)(实)(体)(经)(济)(债)(务)(规)(模)(将)(快)(速)(增)(长)(、相)(关)(改)(革)(措)(施)(难)(见)(成)(效)(、政)(府)(将)(继)(续)(通)(过)(刺)(激)(政)(策)(维)(持)(经)(济)(增)(速)(等)(。针)(对)(穆)(迪)(下)(降)(评)(级)(的)(依)(据)(,包)(括)(财)(政)(部)(、国)(家)(发)(改)(委)(、国)(资)(委)(等)(部)(门)(一)(一)(反)(驳)(。财)(政)(部)(相)(关)(负)(责)(人)(认)(为)(,穆)(迪)(基)(于)(“顺)(周)(期)(”评)(级)(的)(不)(恰)(当)(方)(法)(,在)(一)(定)(程)(度)(上)(高)(估)(了)(中)(国)(经)(济)(面)(临)(的)(困)(难)(,低)(估)(了)(中)(国)(政)(府)(深)(化)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(和)(适)(度)(扩)(大)(总)(需)(求)(的)(能)(力)(。
“我)(们)(当)(然)(不)(同)(意)(他)(们)(的)(看)(法)(,但)(其)(中)(提)(出)(的)(问)(题)(,我)(们)(必)(须)(认)(真)(对)(待)(。问)(题)(仍)(然)(集)(中)(于)(对)(我)(国)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(评)(估)(上)(,集)(中)(于)(对)(我)(国)(去)(杠)(杆)(措)(施)(成)(效)(的)(判)(断)(上)(。”李)(扬)(同)(时)(表)(示)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(的)(债)(务)(和)(杠)(杆)(的)(主)(要)(问)(题)(不)(在)(金)(融)(部)(门)(。
从)(实)(体)(经)(济)(层)(面)(来)(看)(,受)(国)(内)(外)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(影)(响)(,企)(业)(特)(别)(是)(小)(微)(企)(业)(面)(临)(成)(本)(上)(升)(、资)(金)(紧)(张)(等)(问)(题)(,由)(于)(抗)(风)(险)(能)(力)(较)(弱)(,对)(经)(济)(环)(境)(变)(化)(高)(度)(敏)(感)(。在)(商)(业)(银)(行)(信)(用)(风)(险)(反)(弹)(中)(,小)(微)(企)(业)(违)(约)(率)(上)(升)(趋)(势)(突)(出)(。
相)(较)(金)(融)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(来)(说)(,中)(国)(非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(的)(杠)(杆)(率)(情)(况)(令)(人)(担)(忧)(。国)(际)(比)(较)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(非)(金)(融)(企)(业)(杠)(杆)(率)(是)(72%,日)(本)(低)(于)(100%,中)(国)(超)(过)(了)(100%。而)(在)(企)(业)(债)(务)(中)(,65%可)(以)(归)(属)(于)(国)(有)(企)(业)(。“中)(国)(企)(业)(部)(门)(杠)(杆)(率)(的)(问)(题)(,核)(心)(是)(解)(决)(好)(国)(企)(的)(问)(题)(。”李)(扬)(说)(。
“现)(在)(主)(要)(的)(问)(题)(在)(于)(实)(体)(部)(门)(没)(有)(收)(益)(。实)(体)(部)(门)(不)(健)(康)(,仅)(仅)(依)(靠)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(,倒)(逼)(资)(金)(流)(向)(实)(体)(经)(济)(是)(不)(可)(能)(的)(。”李)(扬)(认)(为)(,关)(键)(仍)(然)(是)(提)(高)(实)(体)(经)(济)(效)(率)(,使)(得)(资)(金)(有)(进)(入)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(动)(力)(。而)(要)(提)(高)(实)(体)(经)(济)(效)(率)(,就)(必)(须)(提)(高)(ROA(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)()仍)(在)(上)(升)(的)(行)(业)(比)(重)(,深)(入)(推)(进)(供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(,实)(施)(大)(规)(模)(产)(业)(结)(构)(调)(整)(。
李)(扬)(也)(指)(出)(,在)(这)(两)(年)(里)(,中)(国)(的)(对)(外)(部)(门)(有)(非)(常)(大)(的)(改)(善)(。币)(种)(结)(构)(、期)(限)(结)(构)(、债)(务)(主)(体)(、债)(务)(类)(型)(、负)(债)(率)(、债)(务)(率)(、偿)(债)(率)(、短)(期)(外)(债)(对)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(比)(等)(指)(标)(均)(在)(非)(常)(安)(全)(的)(水)(平)(上)(。基)(于)(此)(,可)(以)(得)(出)(结)(论)(,中)(国)(离)(债)(务)(危)(机)(尚)(远)(。
“中)(国)(的)(债)(务)(不)(构)(成)(危)(机)(还)(有)(两)(个)(原)(因)(,一)(个)(是)(高)(储)(蓄)(率)(,而)(且)(外)(币)(计)(价)(的)(债)(务)(只)(占)(不)(到)(3%;第)(二)(,间)(接)(融)(资)(为)(主)(的)(金)(融)(机)(构)(,使)(得)(债)(务)(问)(题)(和)(产)(生)(的)(风)(险)(实)(际)(上)(是)(流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(,不)(会)(出)(现)(清)(偿)(风)(险)(。流)(动)(性)(风)(险)(解)(决)(的)(空)(间)(要)(大)(得)(多)(,更)(何)(况)(中)(国)(央)(行)(还)(有)(很)(多)(手)(段)(,比)(其)(他)(国)(家)(的)(央)(行)(手)(段)(多)(。”李)(扬)(说)(。
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