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业内解析财富规划:预警颠覆式亏损

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月28日 09:03:33
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(  “市)(场)(中)(最)(常)(见)(的)(就)(是)(在)(低)(迷)(时)(失)(去)(耐)(心)(和)(勇)(气)(,待)(到)(复)(苏)(时)(却)(已)(悉)(数)(抛)(售)(。然)(而)(正)(确)(分)(配)(财)(富)(,进)(行)(财)(富)(管)(理)(的)(人)(则)(更)(容)(易)(坚)(持)(下)(来)(最)(终)(获)(利)(。”近)(日)(,美)(国)(国)(家)(财)(务)(教)(育)(基)(金)(会)(主)(席)(、美)(国)(认)(证)(财)(富)(规)(划)(师)(协)(会)(董)(事)(成)(员)(弗)(恩)(·海)(顿)((VernC.Hayden)在)(接)(受)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(专)(访)(时)(说)(道)(。
  近)(年)(来)(,随)(着)(中)(国)(居)(民)(财)(富)(的)(快)(速)(积)(累)(,对)(于)(财)(富)(规)(划)(的)(认)(知)(与)(需)(求)(也)(日)(益)(凸)(显)(,海)(顿)(认)(为)(,相)(比)(于)(美)(国)(,由)(于)(中)(国)(财)(富)(规)(划)(起)(步)(较)(晚)(并)(且)(缺)(少)(有)(经)(验)(的)(专)(业)(人)(才)(,导)(致)(目)(前)(在)(财)(富)(规)(划)(的)(路)(径)(选)(择)(上)(仍)(较)(为)(单)(一)(,在)(管)(理)(方)(式)(上)(可)(以)(更)(多)(地)(借)(鉴)(西)(方)(多)(年)(积)(累)(的)(经)(验)(和)(教)(训)(。
  每)(个)(人)(都)(需)(要)(财)(富)(规)(划)(
  “无)(论)(是)(美)(国)(人)(还)(是)(中)(国)(人)(,除)(非)(能)(做)(到)(高)(度)(自)(律)(,否)(则)(都)(很)(容)(易)(被)(一)(时)(对)(市)(场)(的)(迷)(恋)(乱)(了)(阵)(脚)(。”对)(于)(中)(国)(股)(市)(近)(期)(大)(幅)(波)(动)(而)(导)(致)(许)(多)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(财)(富)(大)(幅)(“缩)(水)(”的)(现)(象)(,海)(顿)(认)(为)(,大)(多)(数)(美)(国)(人)(也)(会)(在)(市)(场)(低)(迷)(的)(时)(候)(抛)(售)(,而)(在)(市)(场)(高)(点)(时)(买)(进)(,最)(终)(依)(旧)(不)(能)(获)(利)(,这)(是)(人)(之)(常)(情)(。
  但)(不)(同)(的)(是)(,美)(国)(股)(市)(大)(多)(为)(机)(构)(参)(与)(者)(,而)(中)(国)(多)(为)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(,因)(此)(容)(易)(出)(现)(羊)(群)(效)(应)(,缺)(乏)(独)(立)(判)(断)(的)(经)(验)(与)(能)(力)(。此)(外)(,海)(顿)(认)(为)(:“对)(于)(大)(多)(数)(美)(国)(家)(庭)(来)(说)(,股)(市)(投)(资)(不)(是)(必)(需)(的)(,很)(多)(家)(庭)(更)(倾)(向)(去)(购)(买)(保)(险)(、基)(金)(等)(有)(稳)(定)(收)(益)(并)(且)(风)(险)(较)(低)(的)(投)(资)(,对)(于)(股)(市)(的)(热)(衷)(程)(度)(远)(不)(及)(中)(国)(投)(资)(者)(。”
  海)(顿)(举)(例)(称)(,1999年)(美)(国)(技)(术)(泡)(沫)(时)(期)(,他)(的)(一)(个)(股)(票)(经)(纪)(人)(朋)(友)(,一)(开)(始)(在)(股)(市)(里)(获)(得)(了)(一)(些)(收)(益)(,随)(着)(人)(们)(对)(技)(术)(的)(狂)(热)(追)(求)(,他)(像)(是)(上)(瘾)(了)(一)(般)(卖)(房)(借)(款)(买)(技)(术)(类)(股)(票)(。但)(最)(终)(泡)(沫)(破)(灭)(,这)(当)(头)(一)(棒)(带)(走)(了)(他)(的)(所)(有)(。“卖)(房)(买)(股)(的)(行)(为)(是)(建)(立)(在)(对)(市)(场)(的)(积)(极)(预)(测)(上)(,然)(而)(并)(没)(有)(人)(能)(正)(确)(预)(测)(市)(场)(的)(走)(向)(,我)(们)(不)(希)(望)(在)(市)(场)(中)(体)(验)(过)(山)(车)(般)(的)(惊)(险)(,最)(好)(的)(选)(择)(就)(是)(不)(要)(被)(情)(绪)(主)(宰)(了)(决)(策)(。”
  他)(建)(议)(中)(国)(投)(资)(者)(,对)(于)(财)(富)(分)(配)(有)(一)(定)(规)(划)(并)(且)(能)(够)(获)(得)(来)(自)(财)(富)(规)(划)(师)(正)(确)(建)(议)(的)(人)(,更)(容)(易)(在)(大)(潮)(中)(坚)(定)(信)(念)(,站)(稳)(脚)(跟)(。
  目)(前)(,财)(富)(规)(划)(仍)(常)(被)(看)(作)(是)(富)(人)(的)(专)(利)(,但)(海)(顿)(认)(为)(,财)(富)(规)(划)(是)(贯)(穿)(了)(每)(个)(普)(通)(人)(一)(生)(的)(选)(择)(。同)(样)(地)(,在)(不)(同)(的)(人)(生)(阶)(段)(也)(会)(面)(临)(不)(同)(的)(财)(富)(规)(划)(目)(标)(,或)(积)(攒)(学)(费)(,或)(供)(楼)(养)(车)(,或)(为)(退)(休)(后)(的)(财)(务)(自)(由)(作)(准)(备)(。“财)(富)(规)(划)(师)(的)(作)(用)(就)(是)(帮)(助)(人)(们)(在)(自)(己)(不)(熟)(悉)(的)(领)(域)(做)(出)(合)(适)(的)(财)(务)(决)(策)(。”海)(顿)(认)(为)(,随)(着)(大)(数)(据)(时)(代)(的)(到)(来)(,财)(富)(规)(划)(师)(可)(以)(更)(好)(地)(将)(自)(己)(多)(年)(积)(累)(的)(经)(验)(与)(信)(息)(分)(析)(相)(结)(合)(,从)(而)(帮)(助)(人)(们)(做)(出)(更)(合)(理)(的)(选)(择)(。
  除)(了)(寻)(求)(专)(业)(的)(财)(富)(规)(划)(意)(见)(外)(,海)(顿)(还)(建)(议)(个)(人)(投)(资)(者)(对)(于)(财)(富)(的)(管)(理)(要)(从)(了)(解)(财)(经)(知)(识)(开)(始)(,阅)(读)(相)(关)(的)(书)(籍)(来)(了)(解)(股)(票)(、债)(券)(、房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(的)(知)(识)(,“即)(使)(每)(周)(只)(能)(抽)(出)(一)(个)(小)(时)(也)(好)(”。
  怎)(样)(分)(配)(鸡)(蛋)(于)(不)(同)(的)(篮)(子)(中)(
  财)(富)(规)(划)(中)(关)(键)(的)(一)(环)(是)(对)(风)(险)(承)(担)(能)(力)(的)(预)(估)(,然)(而)(在)(海)(顿)(接)(触)(过)(的)(上)(千)(个)(客)(户)(中)(,论)(及)(风)(险)(应)(对)(的)(时)(候)(多)(数)(人)(却)(都)(一)(头)(雾)(水)(。“市)(场)(一)(片)(叫)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,大)(多)(数)(人)(挤)(破)(脑)(袋)(也)(想)(要)(分)(一)(杯)(羹)(,却)(忽)(略)(了)(对)(于)(投)(资)(风)(险)(的)(预)(判)(。”海)(顿)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(当)(一)(项)(投)(资)(全)(部)(亏)(损)(可)(能)(对)(原)(有)(的)(生)(活)(模)(式)(产)(生)(影)(响)(甚)(至)(颠)(覆)(一)(切)(时)(,这)(项)(投)(资)(根)(本)(不)(应)(该)(发)(生)(。
  2008年)(的)(金)(融)(海)(啸)(至)(今)(已)(有)(7年)(,市)(场)(舆)(论)(也)(一)(直)(是)(在)(入)(市)(和)(抽)(离)(之)(间)(争)(论)(不)(休)(,对)(此)(海)(顿)(认)(为)(,如)(果)(能)(够)(做)(到)(合)(理)(地)(分)(配)(财)(富)(,那)(么)(留)(在)(市)(场)(中)(自)(然)(是)(最)(好)(的)(选)(择)(。
  对)(于)(具)(体)(的)(财)(富)(分)(配)(,海)(顿)(建)(议)(30%~40%可)(以)(投)(资)(在)(股)(票)(、债)(券)(、共)(同)(基)(金)(、互)(惠)(基)(金)(等)(上)(面)(。债)(券)(作)(为)(一)(种)(相)(对)(安)(全)(又)(能)(获)(得)(一)(定)(收)(益)(的)(投)(资)(,可)(以)(分)(配)(10%~20%在)(短)(期)((2~3年)()的)(优)(质)(债)(券)(上)(。对)(于)(在)(很)(多)(人)(看)(来)(收)(获)(颇)(丰)(的)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(,海)(顿)(认)(为)(投)(资)(30%~40%的)(比)(例)(较)(为)(理)(想)(,最)(好)(不)(要)(超)(过)(40%。此)(外)(作)(为)(一)(种)(保)(险)(措)(施)(,还)(可)(以)(投)(资)(10%于)(黄)(金)(、白)(银)(、钻)(石)(等)(具)(有)(一)(定)(保)(值)(和)(升)(值)(空)(间)(的)(贵)(金)(属)(上)(。最)(后)(预)(留)(10%的)(现)(金)(,以)(便)(遇)(到)(合)(适)(的)(机)(会)(时)(可)(以)(保)(证)(有)(本)(钱)(用)(于)(投)(资)(。
  “在)(美)(国)(的)(历)(史)(上)(各)(个)(时)(期)(总)(会)(出)(现)(程)(度)(不)(一)(的)(危)(机)(,但)(最)(终)(市)(场)(也)(总)(能)(迎)(来)(复)(苏)(。唯)(有)(对)(未)(来)(抱)(有)(信)(心)(,我)(们)(才)(能)(在)(当)(下)(进)(行)(正)(确)(的)(投)(资)(。”海)(顿)(强)(调)(,在)(对)(未)(来)(充)(满)(信)(心)(的)(同)(时)(,也)(要)(怀)(着)(忧)(患)(意)(识)(冷)(静)(决)(策)(。
  相)(比)(于)(发)(达)(经)(济)(体)(,发)(展)(中)(经)(济)(体)(的)(市)(场)(还)(有)(待)(发)(展)(,也)(充)(满)(了)(许)(多)(变)(数)(。“出)(于)(冲)(动)(,许)(多)(人)(正)(以)(与)(他)(们)(的)(投)(资)(本)(意)(相)(违)(背)(的)(方)(式)(支)(配)(着)(自)(己)(的)(财)(富)(,所)(以)(要)(控)(制)(好)(自)(己)(的)(情)(绪)(,积)(极)(适)(应)(市)(场)(的)(变)(化)(,不)(要)(被)(眼)(花)(缭)(乱)(的)(信)(息)(市)(场)(打)(破)(了)(自)(己)(的)(判)(断)(。”海)(顿)(这)(样)(说)(道)(。
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